By Geeta Padmanabhan

With Mamata Banerjee and Jayalalitha being sworn in chief ministers, nearly 380 million or 30% of the population will be governed by women [include UP under Mayavathi and Delhi under Sheila Dikshit]. It’s interesting that for decades women have been asking for a bill allowing 33% reservation of parliament seats for women. Life’s little irony!

Of the two results – in W. Bengal and Tamil Nadu – it was the one in Tamil Nadu that sprang a big surprise. News channels were way off the mark when they predicted anything from a DMK victory to a narrow lead for Jaya’s ADMK in assembly numbers. Just goes to show how these “scientific” polls done in AC-ed computer rooms and among a mere 6000 respondents are complete duds. The drivers, hawkers, maids and industrial workers were sure – amma would come back. They were worried about just one thing – the counting could be rigged. “She will win,” my maid said emphatically. “But a month between polling and counting… that worries me.”

Yet, the numbers are a surprise – 203/234. In all the interviews and analyses we were subjected to, it is Jaya alone who believed in these numbers. “My alliance will get over 200 seats,” she said, and one could see the interviewer smirking. I wonder where she is now – the interviewer, I mean.

So, how did the comeback queen, well, come back?

[1] Her campaign. She organised a youth wing, issued cards to them, asked them to find their own leaders. Once that got through, every week, she asked party leaders to organise street corner meetings in every town, every district. These were done from open trucks at public places and included all these new members. This was the training ground for the new recruits on how to reach out to the people. The speeches were meticulously written – by herself – describing local problems and attacking the local governments. These protests were recorded and broadcast on her Jaya TV and drew large audiences.

[2] In the month preceding the poll date she stormed the state – in a vehicle that dramatically opened at the top. One could hear audible gasps among the public when she emerged from the opening seated under a canopy. Tamil Nadu loves opening scenes; when the actor appears in the movie, he/she is greeted with whistles and applause.

[3] In every one of her election speeches she talked of the state – the state of the economy and law and order. She had stats to show how the power production had gone down, how the state debt had risen, how sand and granite were being mined illegally, how the prices had risen, the free rice was being sold in neighbouring states, rounding it off with the thundering announcement that in the middle of all this, the first family managed to prosper. She connected the “family’s” biz interests to why they were soft on Sri Lankan Tamils’ plight, to the Cauvery issue with Karnataka. It did help that she was once a very popular actor.

[4] She protested relentlessly, to the Election Commissioner. She explained how elections had been rigged in the past, how money got distributed, how the counting could go wrong, and what she wanted done. Amazingly, every one of her requests got accepted.

[5] She made a strategic alliance with another actor’s party – DMDK. The party had a 10% vote share in the previous election – a share that was cast against the ruling DMK. She gave them the 41 seats they demanded and kept for herself enough numbers to form her own government. “The people of Tamil Nadu will not like a coalition government,” she explained. Vijaykant (DMDK) too, saw the benefit of this alliance – he wanted DMK ouster and presence for himself in the assembly. The handshake paid off very handsomely for him. With 27+ seats now DMDK is the second largest party in the assembly and Vijaykant could be the leader of the opposition!

[6] Jaya knew that the last assembly elections were won because of the promise of freebies. Going for something free is deeply ingrained in the Tamil psyche- or why do shops announce “commissions” in gold buying! Even when you buy veggies you expect free sprigs of curry and coriander leaves – the “kosuru” without which no householder will pay the vendor! She waited for the DMK to announce the freebies, and doubled everything – they promised money, she promised gold. They promised free power, she promised cows and goats as well. Result: the “freebie” lure got neutralised.

[7] She put the 2G spectrum issue to the forefront by offering to support the central government unconditionally. Speaking calmly and in perfectly measured tones and with excellent diction she told a TV channel that she would see to it that the government did not fall if Raja got arrested and the DMK withdrew support. If she were seen as a crusader against corruption, could the Congress afford to lag behind? Raja was put behind bars and the spectrum issue became everyday conversation.

[8] She got help from NGOs. Several organisations went around campaigning against corruption – they printed booklets explaining the spectrum case, about land grabbing, environmental disasters coming out of the frenzy of building, about heritage sites being damaged by the Metro Rail project. I don’t know when a vast majority of people got educated on complex issues so thoroughly before elections.

[9] Tamil Nadu has a high percentage of educated voters. That may be because here politicos see education as business and any number of schools and engineering colleges are run using political profits. The young educated demographic know what is going on, and what to do.

[10] Jaya used her TV’s reach very well. [Did she hire a good PR firm?] In a series of talk shows, her anchors discussed economic issues in the state with experts, the spectrum case with all the players involved in TN and at the centre.

So it was all hard work and strategy. To dismiss the victory as the “people’s habit of seeking change” is to overlook the many pixels in the picture.

Jayalalitha has a very difficult task ahead “putting the administration back on rails”. We can only wish her the best. And hope she will set aside temptations of vendetta and concentrate on her mandated job.

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By Geeta Padmanabhan

The excitement is palpable. Election results in the five states that went to polls are to be announced tomorrow – Friday the thirteenth. These elections, though in just five states out of the 29, were remarkable for many reasons.

In Dr. Qureshi, the country has a Chief Election Commissioner who believes in the rule of law – specially election rules of law. Like the grinning assassin, he smilingly went about supporting state chief electoral officers after demanding from them the strictest adherence to rules of conducting elections. What followed was nothing short of thorough education – for both the politicos and the public – on how elections should be conducted. The “model code of conduct” unfolded and was implemented, leaving us speechless. No wall graffiti, the State Chief Electoral Officer said, and white-washed those that got painted in the night. No street meetings blocking traffic, he said and sent the police to stop them. No buntings, no billboards, no convoys of politicians choking the roads, he said. The only avenue left to campaign was on a single vehicle and by going door-to-door, the old-fashioned way.

Flying squads could be called when party “functionaries” were caught distributing cash or kind. Distribution did not get stopped altogether, but news of capture of cash and freebies got splashed in the press, bad press! In one raid, Rs.5 crore was detected and deposited with the I-T department. In another, a book with names of the recipients neatly ticked off was taken away.

“People are not being allowed to do legitimate business,” said the ruling party. “Show documents for the cash and take it back,” said the electoral officer. “The district magistrates are harassing people,” said the ruling party. “They are strictly following our orders,” said the EO. “The government cannot carry on its business,” said the CM. “During elections, the government should remain suspended,” retorted the EO. “There is no colour, no conviviality this election,” said a union minister. “Elections are serious business,” said the EO. A union minister and a local bigwig assaulted a videographer and the revenue officer accompanying him (appointed to shoot pictures of cash transfers) and the revenue official promptly filed a case. The RO’s driver was murdered and the poor RO withdrew his FIR giving a different version of the scuffle. The case should be dismissed, said the union minister. “No,” said the court. “We are dealing with the first case. You can appeal again for the second case separately.” Ha.

The results will be announced tomorrow. History could be made if

[1] Mamata Banerjee wins West Bengal breaking the 33-year reign of a democratically elected communist government. This could leave the communist party with minimum presence in Indian governance.

[2] Jayalalitha comes back to power in Tamil Nadu. A lot of the underhand dealings of the last five years will come to light. The factions within the first family will be exposed. The equation between the Congress and the DMK will change. It will also put an end to freebie politics. Hopefully, sand/granite mining and land-grabbing will ebb. About the progress of the 2G spectrum case, can it be stopped now?

[3] If the left front comes back in Kerala. This state has always gone in for a change – that chain will be broken and the present chief minister’s credibility will be proven beyond doubt.

The winds of change are blowing elsewhere as well.

In J&K, for the first time in many decades a Kashmiri Pandit woman has been elected Sarpanch in a Muslim dominated area. Is this a beginning of integration?

In Andhra Pradesh, tribal women chased the MLA away (they threw mud on him) for not supporting them in their efforts to stop clay quarrying by private operators.

At the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Mumbai, students refused to take the degree certificates (they stood and protested) when Union Minister for Environment came to deliver the convocation address. They didn’t want him to clear the Jaitapur nuclear project.

In Chennai, a small group of activists stopped sand quarrying at the Adyar estuary by quoting the rules and High Court judgments to the officials. The river was dug up in the night by a private operator with a bulldozer, but the officials have promised to restore the river.

The action will soon shift to the banning of Endosulfan nationwide. The Kerala chief minister has been actively campaigning for the ban. The infamous union minister for environment has made a statement that Endosulfan is not all that dangerous (he actually said it, guess he hasn’t seen the photographs of what it did at Kasargod in Kerala!) but the protests loom ahead.

Compare all this with Newt Gingrich’s announcement of his candidacy for next Presidential race and his ha-ha reason why he strayed from marriage. Dishwater!

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UPDATE 2: RESULTS..scroll down.

UPDATE: Came across this blog post by Digby. Read the whole thing. Then GO VOTE.

Voting isn’t just about making good things happen for yourself and your family. It’s about voting against things that will make your lives worse. And if this Republican party — at this point in history — wins big over the next two years, the lives of average Americans will definitely be worse.

Midterm elections generate low interest among less partisan voters, who need the excitement of a Presidential election to drag them to the polls. But with the ideological lines being drawn sharper now than any other election in recent memory, and vast amounts of shadowy corporate money flushed into the system courtesy the Supreme Court’s Citizen United ruling, there are real costs and consequences to your decision to abstain. Take 5 minutes and GO VOTE on November 2nd.

Typically, propositions with real teeth are introduced in midterm elections, since there are only a handful of devoted poll-goers with very specific demographic profiles that need to be convinced. Let’s confound those expectations by making sure we all vote, and vote in an informed fashion.

PROPOSITIONS

Summary

Proposition 19 – VOTE YES Result: FAILED

Proposition 20 – Vote YES Result: PASSED

Proposition 21 – Vote YES Result: FAILED

Proposition 22 – Vote NO Result: PASSED

Proposition 23 – Vote NO Result: FAILED

Proposition 24 – Vote YES Result: FAILED

Proposition 25 – Vote YES Result: PASSED

Proposition 26 – Vote NO Result: PASSED

Proposition 27 – Vote NO Result: FAILED

Proposition 19-Broadly speaking, voting YES on this measure allows local governments to regulate and tax the use and sale of marijuana. It also allows people 21 or over to carry and use it for personal use.

It is  a testament to the increasing acceptance of cannabis that the opposition to this proposition is largely on the basis that the proposition is written badly. If that argument sounds familiar, it is because that is often the last resort of opponents who can’t offer any other convincing rebuttal. Is there some merit to the fact that by allowing each local government to set its own rules, there is going to be an enormous amount of bureaucratic confusion generated by this measure? Not really, since counties do set some of their own taxes.

The federal statute still considers the use and sale of marijuana illegal, so there is the added gray space around this proposition, but legalizing personal use of cannabis in California sends a message to the federal governement to start treating this product on par with cigarettes and alcohol.

VOTE YES. RESULT: FAILED
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Proposition 20 and Proposition 27 – In 2008, sick of districts being gerrymandered, voters passed Prop 11, taking the power of drawing district lines for the state legislature away from legislators themselves and handing it to an independent commission. However, the power to redraw Congressional districts is still in the hands of legislators.

Voting YES on Proposition 20 would mean that even congressional districts would be drawn by an independent commission. Voting NO would maintain the status quo.

However, Proposition 27 aims to rescind Prop 11. Voting Yes on Prop 27 would mean returning the power to redistrict state legislative districts to the legislators. Voting No would keep Prop 11’s provisions for an independent commission in place.

What if both Prop 20 and Prop 27 prevail? Whichever proposition gets more votes will win. If Prop 20 gets more votes, then both state and congressional districts will be handled by an independent commission. If Prop 27 gets more votes, then the power to redraw districts will return to the hands of legislators (members of Congress).

While the sentiment behind Prop 20  seems to be admirable, it is almost entirely funded by Republican millionaire Charles Munger in an attempt to take redistricting away from the Democratic party in California. However, I am going to take a stand based on my opposition to gerrymandering.

VOTE YES on Prop 20 RESULT: PASSED

VOTE NO on Prop 27. RESULT: FAILED

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Proposition 21 – This ballot measure would fund California’s park system through an $18 increase in the vehicle registration fee; currently, the system is funded through the state’s chronically squeezed general fund. (I am told this is something like a surcharge on televisions to fund the BBC in the UK.)

The new fee would raise roughly $500 million a year, compared to the current annual state park operations budget of $439 million.

In return for paying the new vehicle surcharge, California motorists would get free admission to all state parks, which currently charge a day use fee of $5 to $15 per vehicle.

Voting YES would impose the fee. Voting NO would maintain the status quo.

Our family uses the local State Park at Coyote Hills frequently, and we buy an annual $50 pass for the privilege. Even with 2 cars (total surcharge $36), this measure is a no-brainer.

VOTE YES. RESULT: FAILED
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Proposition 22- This proposition prohibits the State, even during a period of severe fiscal hardship, from delaying the distribution of tax revenues for transportation, redevelopment, or local government projects and services.

The sentiment is worthy; during this recession, local governments have seen the state appropriate funds derived from local property taxes and fuel tax revenues, usually meant to be used for transportation related services, have been funneled to service debt. Voting YES on this proposition would severely restrict the ability of the state to make these appropriations. Voting NO would maintain the status quo.

However, propositions like these have slowly eroded the state government’s ability to make prudent and flexible budgetary decisions. If prop 22 passes, the state will have no choice but to impose new taxes to generate new revenue streams to make up for the $1 billion fiscal impact the new law will have. Also, richer communities will keep more of their wealth, and poorer communities will have to depend more and more on shrinking state revenues for essential services.

I think it is unfair for us to blame the state government for poor performance and budget woes and then help pass an initiative that hampers its ability to govern effectively.

Vote NO. RESULT: PASSED

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Proposition 23 – This is the infamous proposition to rescind AB 32, the Global Warming Act of 2006. AB 32, California’s landmark clean air act, required polluting companies to reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.

Voting YES would suspend AB 32 and allow polluting companies to operate under older guidelines.

Voting NO would keep AB 322 in place.

My first opposition to this is that AB 32 was a law passed by the legislature, which is their job. If we disapprove of their actions, we vote them out. Governing by referendum is just not something to be encouraged and exposes the state to the tyranny of a hyper-partisan minority that actually bothers to go to the polls.

Secondly, there is a battle being fought at the national stage to cap greenhouse emissions, prompting the White House to chime in on this proposition. “The president is opposed to Prop. 23 — a veiled attempt by corporate polluters to block progress towards a clean energy economy,” White House spokesman Adam Abrams announced Wednesday. “If passed, the initiative would stifle innovation, investment in R&D and cost jobs for the state of California.” (Source L.A. Times)

If you are concerned about the environment, and interested in encouraging the development of clean technology and alternatives to fossil fuels,

Vote NO. RESULT: FAILED
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Proposition 24 – Voting Yes on this initiative would stop several corporate tax breaks that are slated to go into effect in 2010 and 2012. The tax breaks include:

* The “single-sales factor”. This allows multi-state corporations to choose whether they will be taxed on property, payroll or sales.
* Loss carry-backs. This allows corporations that are experiencing losses in California’s current economy to get refunds for taxes paid up to two years previously.
* Tax credit-sharing. This allows companies with more tax credits than they can use to distribute the tax credits to affiliates.

These tax breaks benefit only about 2% of California’s businesses , the richest, multi-state corporations in the state. In these poor economic times, repealing corporate tax breaks for the wealthiest corporations makes sense.

VOTE YES. RESULT: FAILED
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Proposition 25 – Voting Yes on this proposition would end the current requirement in the state that two-thirds of the members of the California State Legislature must vote in favor of the state’s budget in order for a budget to be enacted. It also requires state legislators to forfeit their pay in years where they have failed to pass a budget in a timely fashion.

This is a no-brainer. Requiring two-thirds majority for budgetary decisions has caused tremendous gridlock in Sacramento. And this initiative keeps the two-thirds requirements for any new taxes.

VOTE YES. RESULT: PASSED

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Proposition 26 – Voting yes would mean that it would require a two-thirds supermajority vote in the California State Legislature to pass many fees, levies, charges and tax revenue allocations that under existing rules can be enacted by a simple majority vote.

The biggest donor to this initiative is Chevron, followed by the California Chamber of Commerce, which should tell you plenty about the motivation behind this amendment. If this Proposition passes, it will make it harder to impose fees on corporations that cause environmental or public health problems. Also, imagine if local governments had to go to the public every time they wanted to impose a fee; the costs of running the decision through the electoral process would be more than the fees levied.!

This is another case of pushing all these decisions into the hands of voters rather than their representatives, and neutering government.

VOTE NO. RESULT: PASSED
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Proposition 27 – See Proposition 20.

VOTE NO.

CANDIDATES: Normally I would take a serious look at all candidates for office. However, if there’s one thing the last 2 years have illuminated very clearly, it is that the Republican party places a very high value on loyalty and ideological purity. There doesn’t seem to be any room for moderate Republicans with pragmatic ideas.  Instead, the Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell has made it plain that his sole ambition, should the Republicans take the majority, is to take down Obama – not govern well, not reduce the deficit, but take down the President.

I am not going to enable this kind of shamelessness. I will, therefore, be voting Democratic down the line.

Plus, if you wanted a reason to vote for Jerry Brown, see this:

Ha!

CANDIDATES RESULTS:

GOVERNOR: JERRY BROWN

U.S. SENATOR: BARBARA BOXER

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR: GAVIN NEWSOM

CONTROLLER: JOHN CHIANG

TREASURER: BILL LOCKYEAR

ATTORNEY GENERAL: STILL UNKNOWN AS OF WRITE TIME.

Thank you California voters, for keeping the state Democratic, even if you were quite bone-headed about the various propositions on the ballot!

Picture courtesy Alan Cleaver via Creative Commons.

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Expecting sanity and reason fro the opposition, though, seems foolish at this point.

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Health Care Reform:

• Coverage can’t be denied to children with pre-existing conditions.
• Adults up to age 26 can stay on their parents’ health plans.
• Free preventive care.
• Rescinding coverage is now illegal.
• Eliminating lifetime limits on insurance coverage.
• Restricting annual limits on insurance coverage.
• More options to appeal coverage decisions.
• $5 billion in immediate federal support to affordable Coverage for the Uninsured with Pre-existing Conditions.
• $10 billion investment in Community Health Centers.
• Create immediate access to re-insurance for employer health plans providing coverage for early retirees.
• Made an $80 billion dealwith the pharmaceutical industry to contribute to cut prescription drug costs for the nation’s seniors reduce the size of the “donut hole” in the Medicare (Part D) Drug Benefit.

Economy:

1. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) has worked. The Economy Has Been Growing – take a look at the graph of GDP growth between 2007 thru 2010.
2. US auto industry rescue plan — Detroit making profits again and at least 1 million jobs saved.
3. Worker, Homeownership, and Business Assistance Act of 2009 that extended Unemployment benefits up to 20 weeks and more.
4. Provided $14.7 billion in small business loans increasing minority access to capital.
5. The $26 billion aid to states package preventing large-scale layoffs of teachers and public employees.

Banking and Financial Reform

1. Signed a sweeping bank-reform bill (the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act)into law
2. Managed the $700 Billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) that Banks have repaid 75% of TARP funds, bringing the cost down to $89B as of June 2010.
3. Cut Salaries For 65 Bailout Executives
4. Closed offshore tax safe havens, tax credit loopholes on companies that use the tax laws to ship American Jobs oversees. HR 4213.
5. Signed into law the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act to fight fraud in the use of TARP and recovery funds, and to increase accountability for corporate and mortgage frauds.
6. Signed the Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility and Disclosure Act

Education

1. Health Care and Education Affordability Reconciliation Act of 2010 that increased the amount of federal Pell Grant awards and enabled the stripping of banks privileges as intermediaries for student loan servicing.
2. Created the Race to the Top Fund, a $4.35 billion program to reward States that submit the best proposals for change.
3. As part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, funded over$100 Billion for reforms to strengthen Elementary and Secondary education, early learning programs, college affordability and improve access to higher education, and to close the achievement gap.

Jobs

1. The $787 billion economic stimulus package has created or saved nearly 2 million jobs slowing the bleeding
2. Jobs for Main Street Act (2010)injected $27.5 Billion for Highways, $8.4 Billion for Transit into the country’s transportation system to create jobs and spur economic activity.
3. A $33 Billion Jobs Packagethat will allow Small businesses to get $5,000 tax credit for new hires.
4. A $26 billion State Aid Package Jobs Bill saving 300,000 teachers and public workers jobs from unemployment.
5. The Auto bailout saved 1 million jobs.

Green Energy

1. Implemented renewable fuels mandate of 36 billion gallons by 2022, four times what we currently consume.
2. Automakers will be required to meet a fleet-wide average of New Gas Mileage Standards at 35.5 MPH by 2016.
3. A $60 billion investment in renewable and clean energy.

Housing

1. $275 billion dollar housing plan – $75 billion dollars to prevent at-risk mortgage debtors already fallen victim to foreclosures and $200 billion to bring about confidence to offer affordable mortgages and to stability the housing market.
2. Established “Opening Doors” to end the homelessness of 640,000 men, women, and children in the United States in 10 years.
3. Provided $510 Million for the rehabilitation of Native American housing. ref
4. Provided $2 billion for Neighborhood Stabilization Program to rehab, resell, or demolish in order to stabilize neighborhoods.
5. Provided $5 billion for Weatherization Assistance Program for low income families to weatherize 1 million homes per year for the next decade.
6. Provided grants to encourage states and localities to take the first steps in implementing new building codes that prioritize energy efficiency.

Medicaid/Medicare/Social Security

1. giving $250 economic stimulus check to 55 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients in 2009.
2. Cutting prescription drug costs for Medicare recipients by 50% and began eliminating the plan’s gap (”donut hole”) in coverage.
3. Passing as part of H.R.3962 (Preservation of Access to Care for Medicare Beneficiaries and Pension Relief Act of 2010) a $6.4 billion measurereversing a 21 percent cut in physician payments that would have started a flood of rejections by some doctors of seniors covered by Medicare.
4. Expanded eligibility for Medicaid to all individuals under age 65 with incomes up to 133 percent of the federal poverty level ($14,400 per year for an individual).

Military Veterans and Families

1. Implemented a strategic planto increase the hiring of Veterans and Military spouses throughout the Federal civil service.
2. Provided for the expenses of families of to be at Dover AFB when fallen soldiers arrive.
3. Passed the Veterans’ Compensation Cost-of-Living Adjustment Act of 2009 increasing the rates of compensation for veterans with service-connected disabilities and the rates of dependency and indemnity compensation for the survivors of certain disabled veterans.
4. Declared the end of the war in Iraqi bringing back nearly 100,000 U.S. troops home to their families.
5. Donated 250K of Nobel prize money to Fisher House, a group that helps provide housing for families of patients receiving medical care at military and Veterans Affairs medical centers

LBGT

1. Extended  benefitsto same-sex partners of federal employees
2. Signed the Matthew Shepard and James Byrd, Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act
3. Instructed HHS to require any hospital receiving Medicare or Medicaid funds (virtually all hospitals) to allow LGBT visitation rights.
4. Banned job discrimination based on gender identity throughout the Federal government (the nation’s largest employer)
5. Signed the Ryan White HIV/AIDS Treatment Extension Act
6. Extended the Family and Medical Leave Act to cover Gay employees taking unpaid leave to care for their children of same-sex partners
7. Lifted the HIV Entry Ban.
8. Implemented HUD Policies that Would Ban Discrimination Based On Gender Identity

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All signs indicate a disastrous election for the Democrats, with some pollsters even suggesting that they may lose both houses of Congress.

Typically, the minority party is much more energized in midterms. Republicans have built on that energy by nakedly appealing to their base, using fear-mongering of President Obama’s origins, xenophobic appeals against the “Ground Zero” mosque (not at Ground Zero and not a mosque!), and health care misinformation (Death Panels!). This has allowed them to divert attention from the fact that they really don’t have any better ideas to offer the country. Indeed, they have spent the last 2 years colluding with lobbyists and corporations, and proudly obstructing every single initiative proposed by the majority party. (If the Democratic party has, at times, displayed similar characteristics, it is due to the Blue Dog representatives from conservative districts, who are but Democrats in name, and who do not represent the progressive values of their brethren.)

Voters not deeply engaged with the political process might have an idealistic belief that a divided Congress would lead to bipartisan and productive decision making. Let me disabuse you of that notion. Many Republican representatives and candidates have proudly stated their intention not just to repeal some of the useful legislation passed with such great difficulty over the last 18 months, but also to bring about a complete government shutdown. One representative from California, much to my shame, has even mad rabid statements about impeaching the President (for reasons that are unknown even to him).

It is my intention, therefore, to write a series of posts leading up to the elections to convince you of how important your vote is. To begin, check out this video courtesy of Steve Benen and Bill Simmons.

And mark your calendar for November 8, 2010.

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At first glance, this seems reasonable. After all, why give illegal immigrants a reward for their behavior.  Even people with somewhat liberal proclivities have confessed to thinking this is not such a bad idea. But, apart from the history behind the reason for the Amendment in the first place ( see Wikipedia article here) this is a pretty bad idea.

I wasn’t quite able to explain coherently why, but the Intertubes came to the rescue, as usual. In a blog post in Swampland (the Time magazine blog) blogger Kate Pickert asks these questions, which provide a great deal of clarity to the debate. Read and realize, as I did, the consequences of revoking the 14th Amendment

If their U.S.-born children wouldn’t become automatic citizens, would illegal immigrants choose not to have children in America? Would revoking this American right under our current Constitution actually really change anything on the ground? Hospitals that now care for undocumented immigrant women would most certainly still do so, even if their babies were similarly illegal. Would states, which control their own schools, disallow non-citizens from attending? What would be the social consequences of having an entire generation of these children grow up in the U.S. without being educated? What if a child was born to an undocumented father and a U.S. citizen mother? What about an undocumented mother and a citizen father? How do you prove this? Will the federal government require paternity tests before granting citizenship?

The central question that comes to mind is – do we really want an uneducated, unemployable sub-class of citizens a generation from now? And just imagine the bureaucracy ( and, consequently, money) involved in determining who can be a citizen and who cannot. For people who decry big government and want no part of any kind of governmental intrusion in their lives, this is a pretty big hypocrisy.

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Results Update: Money power prevailed on Tuesday as the candidates deep pockets won. But Prop 16, which had an early lead, ended up being defeated. Scroll down for results.

It is a measure of our relative levels of peace and prosperity that we are so apathetic about voting, especially in primaries. That, and California’s horrendous habit of putting everything up to public referenda, abdicating the legislature’s responsibility to the voters. No wonder voters typically close their eyes (and minds) and blindly vote no on everything. Or stay home.

The trouble is, if you, as an informed voter, choose to stay out of the election process, then you hand over an enormous amount of power to the crazies on the fringe (one reason why the Tea Party is such a potent threat is that THEY VOTE!!!)

So go vote on Tuesday and here’s a quick primer to help you make up your mind on the various propositions and candidates up on the ballot.

PROPOSITIONS

Summary

Proposition 13 – Vote YES. Result: YES
Proposition 14 – Vote YES  Result: YES
Proposition 15 – Vote YES  Result: NO
Proposition 16 – Vote NO    Result: NO
Proposition 17 – Vote NO   Result: NO

Proposition 13- Voting Yes makes it easier for builders, developers, and property owners to make earthquake retrofits to their property without worrying that the retrofits will raise the value of the property and therefore, property tax.

Voting No preserves the status quo.

VOTE YES.

See, that was an easy one. You do want buildings in California to be safer, right?
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Proposition 14 – Voting Yes changes the primary process for a bunch of state positions, including Governor, and national positions, including Senators and Congress representatives. Basically, all voters would have all candidates on the ballot, and instead of the Democratic Party winner duking it out with the Republican Party winner in November, it would be the top two vote getters. In theory, you could have 2 Democratic candidates or 2 Republican candidates squaring off the in the general elections.

In theory this sounds rather nice, because we have seen how primaries can make even reasonable candidates tack hard left or hard right as they try to appeal to their base in the primaries. This way, you’d probably have candidates try to stay centrist in their positions in order to attract as many voters of either party.

In practice, the party affiliations would still show up on the ballot, so registered members of each party are probably going to vote along party lines anyway. And the successful candidates are usually the ones with the most money.

Still, I like the prospect of having candidates trying to appeal to a wider audience than the extreme elements of their base, even if it means that in today’s gerrymandered districts one party could get completely shut out of the general election. (Yes, you could have Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore vying for Senator and then you can stay home!). Third party candidates have been complaining that they will be shut out of the ballot process in November, but when did they have a chance anyway.

I am inclined to VOTE YES.
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Proposition 15 – Voting Yes on this proposition lifts the ban on public funding for political campaigns. It also establishes a public funding system for the Secretary of State position. You might call this a trial balloon for future public funding for other legislative races. Here’s how it will hopefully play out:

Once this proposition goes through, a system of public funding will be established for the Secretary of State position. Funds for this system will not come from taxpayers; rather, a higher fee on lobbyists and voluntary contributions will create the capital fund. Candidates eligible for public funding will have to prove they are serious contenders by collecting a certain number of signatures. They also prohibited from spending any more money than they are allotted.

If this works out, other legislative races have the option of going for public funding, since the ban has been lifted by this proposition.

This measure also expires in 2019, so we will have time to see how it works in 2014 and 2018.

Absolutely VOTE YES. Any step that moves us towards public campaign finance is a welcome step.
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Proposition 16- Have you seen any ad urging you to “Vote No” for this proposition? No? Didn’t think so. This proposition has been bankrolled and shamelessly promoted by PG&E, whose massive ad budget has simply drowned out the opposition.

Voting Yes on this proposition means that local governments would need approval from two-thirds of the voters before they can use alternative means of providing electricity services to their constituents. Since PG&E pretty much has a monopoly on electricity services at this time, and getting a two-thirds vote on anything is pretty much impossible, this is nothing but a blatant attempt to preserve the monopoly.

PG&E has been putting up really misleading ads that this is about our “Right to Vote,” but requiring an absolute majority is a subversion of the democratic process, and leads to minority rule, as can be seen from the gridlock in the U.S. Senate over the last year with filibuster threats by the Republicans for every little initiative.
Also, many townships with independent electricity contracts, like Palo Alto, currently have much lower electricity rates and this measure would make it much more expensive for them to expand service to new homeowners.

This is a bad proposition put up by a greedy power company. Opponents have not had any money to put up a spirited campaign so it up to us to educate ourselves and defeat it.

VOTE NO!!!
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Proposition 17 – Voting Yes changes insurance law to allow companies to penalize or reward drivers based on whether they have had continuous insurance coverage or now, regardless of which company they had coverage with. Supposedly, a surcharge to switch coverage is eliminated, and discounts can be offered by insurance companies if the driver maintains continuous coverage.

However, currently drivers in California do not pay a surcharge to switch companies. So this proposition’s claim to remove the surcharge is redundant. However, this proposition does add penalties for coverage lapse. If there was any period of time of 91 days or more in the last five years where you did not pay an insurance premium, you could be hit with heavy penalties, even if your driving record is blemish free or even if you never had a car.
Prop 17 is almost completely funded by Mercury insurance. Enough said.

VOTE NO.

CANDIDATES:

Governor

Republican: Steve Poizner. Supports gay rights, abortion rights. Fiscal conservative. Hard-working insurance commissioner. Result: Meg Whitman blew Poizner out of the water.
Democratic: Jerry Brown. Result: Jerry Brown comfortably.

US Senator

Republican: Tom Campbell. Supports gay rights, gun control and abortion rights. Fiscal conservative. Result: Carly Fiorina won by a big margin.
Democrat: Barbara Boxer. Result: Boxer.

Attorney General

Democrat: Kamala Harris. Smart, competent, female. What’s not to like? Result: Harris
Republican: Steve Cooley, Harris’ counterpart in Southern California. Result: Cooley

Mercifully, Orly Taitz, who, unbelievably, was contesting for Secretary of State, lost. For full results see here.

Picture courtesy Theresa Thomson via Creative Commons.

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If, like me, you’ve been following the HCR drama with great interest but little understanding, here is a graphic representation of what reform is going to mean for the country courtesy The Wonk Room.

What next for passage of the HCR Act? The house bill and the senate bill have to be merged in conference and the resulting bill will have to be approved once again by both bodies before it goes to the President for his signature.

The Wonk Room, once again, looks at the difference between the bills and suggests improvements that can be added in the merging process here.

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May 18th, 2009

Sonia and Manamohan Singh - picture from NDTV.Com

I’m writing this after a lot of soul searching. On a day when stock trading had to be suspended after it reached the upper circuit and was ballooning out of control, on a day when LTTE chief Prabhakaran, his son and aides were declared as “shot dead while trying to escape”, when TV channels are on overdrive “celebrating” Congress victory and Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, maybe my voice will sound churlish.

Today, I lost a whole lot of my faith in TV reporting. PTI said Prabhakaran was shot dead while trying to escape in a “jeep”. IBN Live said while trying to escape in an “ambulance”. Strangely, after 3 years of relentless war against the LTTE, President Rajapakshe was in Jordan when the final assault was mounted and the area left to capture kept shrinking. Why would he go away? Why did he say, “When I return, it will all be over?” It is too much of a coincidence that there was no progress in the war during the gap of three days between the last day of polling and the day of the results.

The new government doesn’t have to deal with a messy war. It just has to send supplies to the displaced Tamils. Busy with national elections, it could not have done anything to enforce a ceasefire. Did it really want to?

With Prabhakaran out of the picture (he became too ambitious), one can only hope that the Tamils are lucky enough to find an activist dedicated to their cause.

Back to the elections:  Tamil Nadu went through large scale rigging and tempering of electronic voting machines – a reason why the machines have been rejected by the US and Japan? What could not be fixed by EVMs was done by officers in the pay of the government. Everyone knows about it but they all feel powerless to interfere. The print media published a sanitized version of the story. TV channels were deafeningly silent on it, choosing rather to say that there was big support to a government that was responsible for power cuts, increase in all food prices, unprecedented violence, bandhs, land grabbing and sand theft and it won because of its populist policies is to mock at the people who are suffering.

And the news channels didn’t raise a whisper about the way P Chidambaram got elected.

At about 12 noon on May 16, the counting got over and the results were announced. AIDMK’s candidate was declared as winner at Sivaganga. For three hours after that, the certificate to that effect was not issued. There was no round by round declaration of results either. There was a flurry of phone calls, PC was taken to a backroom and issued the certificate. After more delay, paramilitary forces amounting to 5000 arrived and the announcement was made: PC had won by the same number of votes that his opponent had won earlier. The Chief Electoral Officer was consulted and he said that his hands were tied since the District Magistrate of the area had used his discretionary powers to “recount” and had made the correction. This man, who is now being described as “squeezed through the election” may soon be our finance/home minister.

Today, PC went on air thanking the CM of this state for his help in his election.

Yes, the Congress won a lot more seats this time and will provide a more stable government. Without having to depend on the Left (there’s international relief that the communists are out of the government) the party can speed up reforms and bring in more FIIs, more MNCs, more food imports and more cash to the party’s coffers. But behind that “stability” are candidates who muscled and moneyed their way in.

There are criminal charges against three Tamil Nadu ministers in the previous cabinet. They will get berths this time too. In addition there will be one more from Madurai who set a newspaper office ablaze over the family feud. It killed three workers inside.

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