By Geeta Padmanabhan

With Mamata Banerjee and Jayalalitha being sworn in chief ministers, nearly 380 million or 30% of the population will be governed by women [include UP under Mayavathi and Delhi under Sheila Dikshit]. It’s interesting that for decades women have been asking for a bill allowing 33% reservation of parliament seats for women. Life’s little irony!

Of the two results – in W. Bengal and Tamil Nadu – it was the one in Tamil Nadu that sprang a big surprise. News channels were way off the mark when they predicted anything from a DMK victory to a narrow lead for Jaya’s ADMK in assembly numbers. Just goes to show how these “scientific” polls done in AC-ed computer rooms and among a mere 6000 respondents are complete duds. The drivers, hawkers, maids and industrial workers were sure – amma would come back. They were worried about just one thing – the counting could be rigged. “She will win,” my maid said emphatically. “But a month between polling and counting… that worries me.”

Yet, the numbers are a surprise – 203/234. In all the interviews and analyses we were subjected to, it is Jaya alone who believed in these numbers. “My alliance will get over 200 seats,” she said, and one could see the interviewer smirking. I wonder where she is now – the interviewer, I mean.

So, how did the comeback queen, well, come back?

[1] Her campaign. She organised a youth wing, issued cards to them, asked them to find their own leaders. Once that got through, every week, she asked party leaders to organise street corner meetings in every town, every district. These were done from open trucks at public places and included all these new members. This was the training ground for the new recruits on how to reach out to the people. The speeches were meticulously written – by herself – describing local problems and attacking the local governments. These protests were recorded and broadcast on her Jaya TV and drew large audiences.

[2] In the month preceding the poll date she stormed the state – in a vehicle that dramatically opened at the top. One could hear audible gasps among the public when she emerged from the opening seated under a canopy. Tamil Nadu loves opening scenes; when the actor appears in the movie, he/she is greeted with whistles and applause.

[3] In every one of her election speeches she talked of the state – the state of the economy and law and order. She had stats to show how the power production had gone down, how the state debt had risen, how sand and granite were being mined illegally, how the prices had risen, the free rice was being sold in neighbouring states, rounding it off with the thundering announcement that in the middle of all this, the first family managed to prosper. She connected the “family’s” biz interests to why they were soft on Sri Lankan Tamils’ plight, to the Cauvery issue with Karnataka. It did help that she was once a very popular actor.

[4] She protested relentlessly, to the Election Commissioner. She explained how elections had been rigged in the past, how money got distributed, how the counting could go wrong, and what she wanted done. Amazingly, every one of her requests got accepted.

[5] She made a strategic alliance with another actor’s party – DMDK. The party had a 10% vote share in the previous election – a share that was cast against the ruling DMK. She gave them the 41 seats they demanded and kept for herself enough numbers to form her own government. “The people of Tamil Nadu will not like a coalition government,” she explained. Vijaykant (DMDK) too, saw the benefit of this alliance – he wanted DMK ouster and presence for himself in the assembly. The handshake paid off very handsomely for him. With 27+ seats now DMDK is the second largest party in the assembly and Vijaykant could be the leader of the opposition!

[6] Jaya knew that the last assembly elections were won because of the promise of freebies. Going for something free is deeply ingrained in the Tamil psyche- or why do shops announce “commissions” in gold buying! Even when you buy veggies you expect free sprigs of curry and coriander leaves – the “kosuru” without which no householder will pay the vendor! She waited for the DMK to announce the freebies, and doubled everything – they promised money, she promised gold. They promised free power, she promised cows and goats as well. Result: the “freebie” lure got neutralised.

[7] She put the 2G spectrum issue to the forefront by offering to support the central government unconditionally. Speaking calmly and in perfectly measured tones and with excellent diction she told a TV channel that she would see to it that the government did not fall if Raja got arrested and the DMK withdrew support. If she were seen as a crusader against corruption, could the Congress afford to lag behind? Raja was put behind bars and the spectrum issue became everyday conversation.

[8] She got help from NGOs. Several organisations went around campaigning against corruption – they printed booklets explaining the spectrum case, about land grabbing, environmental disasters coming out of the frenzy of building, about heritage sites being damaged by the Metro Rail project. I don’t know when a vast majority of people got educated on complex issues so thoroughly before elections.

[9] Tamil Nadu has a high percentage of educated voters. That may be because here politicos see education as business and any number of schools and engineering colleges are run using political profits. The young educated demographic know what is going on, and what to do.

[10] Jaya used her TV’s reach very well. [Did she hire a good PR firm?] In a series of talk shows, her anchors discussed economic issues in the state with experts, the spectrum case with all the players involved in TN and at the centre.

So it was all hard work and strategy. To dismiss the victory as the “people’s habit of seeking change” is to overlook the many pixels in the picture.

Jayalalitha has a very difficult task ahead “putting the administration back on rails”. We can only wish her the best. And hope she will set aside temptations of vendetta and concentrate on her mandated job.

By Geeta Padmanabhan

The excitement is palpable. Election results in the five states that went to polls are to be announced tomorrow – Friday the thirteenth. These elections, though in just five states out of the 29, were remarkable for many reasons.

In Dr. Qureshi, the country has a Chief Election Commissioner who believes in the rule of law – specially election rules of law. Like the grinning assassin, he smilingly went about supporting state chief electoral officers after demanding from them the strictest adherence to rules of conducting elections. What followed was nothing short of thorough education – for both the politicos and the public – on how elections should be conducted. The “model code of conduct” unfolded and was implemented, leaving us speechless. No wall graffiti, the State Chief Electoral Officer said, and white-washed those that got painted in the night. No street meetings blocking traffic, he said and sent the police to stop them. No buntings, no billboards, no convoys of politicians choking the roads, he said. The only avenue left to campaign was on a single vehicle and by going door-to-door, the old-fashioned way.

Flying squads could be called when party “functionaries” were caught distributing cash or kind. Distribution did not get stopped altogether, but news of capture of cash and freebies got splashed in the press, bad press! In one raid, Rs.5 crore was detected and deposited with the I-T department. In another, a book with names of the recipients neatly ticked off was taken away.

“People are not being allowed to do legitimate business,” said the ruling party. “Show documents for the cash and take it back,” said the electoral officer. “The district magistrates are harassing people,” said the ruling party. “They are strictly following our orders,” said the EO. “The government cannot carry on its business,” said the CM. “During elections, the government should remain suspended,” retorted the EO. “There is no colour, no conviviality this election,” said a union minister. “Elections are serious business,” said the EO. A union minister and a local bigwig assaulted a videographer and the revenue officer accompanying him (appointed to shoot pictures of cash transfers) and the revenue official promptly filed a case. The RO’s driver was murdered and the poor RO withdrew his FIR giving a different version of the scuffle. The case should be dismissed, said the union minister. “No,” said the court. “We are dealing with the first case. You can appeal again for the second case separately.” Ha.

The results will be announced tomorrow. History could be made if

[1] Mamata Banerjee wins West Bengal breaking the 33-year reign of a democratically elected communist government. This could leave the communist party with minimum presence in Indian governance.

[2] Jayalalitha comes back to power in Tamil Nadu. A lot of the underhand dealings of the last five years will come to light. The factions within the first family will be exposed. The equation between the Congress and the DMK will change. It will also put an end to freebie politics. Hopefully, sand/granite mining and land-grabbing will ebb. About the progress of the 2G spectrum case, can it be stopped now?

[3] If the left front comes back in Kerala. This state has always gone in for a change – that chain will be broken and the present chief minister’s credibility will be proven beyond doubt.

The winds of change are blowing elsewhere as well.

In J&K, for the first time in many decades a Kashmiri Pandit woman has been elected Sarpanch in a Muslim dominated area. Is this a beginning of integration?

In Andhra Pradesh, tribal women chased the MLA away (they threw mud on him) for not supporting them in their efforts to stop clay quarrying by private operators.

At the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Mumbai, students refused to take the degree certificates (they stood and protested) when Union Minister for Environment came to deliver the convocation address. They didn’t want him to clear the Jaitapur nuclear project.

In Chennai, a small group of activists stopped sand quarrying at the Adyar estuary by quoting the rules and High Court judgments to the officials. The river was dug up in the night by a private operator with a bulldozer, but the officials have promised to restore the river.

The action will soon shift to the banning of Endosulfan nationwide. The Kerala chief minister has been actively campaigning for the ban. The infamous union minister for environment has made a statement that Endosulfan is not all that dangerous (he actually said it, guess he hasn’t seen the photographs of what it did at Kasargod in Kerala!) but the protests loom ahead.

Compare all this with Newt Gingrich’s announcement of his candidacy for next Presidential race and his ha-ha reason why he strayed from marriage. Dishwater!